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Impact of total transaction fees on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Název práce v češtině: Vliv celkových transakčních poplatků na cenu Bitcoinu a Etherea
Název v anglickém jazyce: Impact of total transaction fees on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Klíčová slova: Kryptoměny, Bitcoin, Ethereum, časové řady, Transakční poplatky
Klíčová slova anglicky: Cryptoassets, Bitcoin, Ethereum, time series, transaction fees
Akademický rok vypsání: 2021/2022
Typ práce: bakalářská práce
Jazyk práce: angličtina
Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
Vedoucí / školitel: prof. PhDr. Ladislav Krištoufek, Ph.D.
Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
Datum přihlášení: 02.09.2022
Datum zadání: 02.09.2022
Datum a čas obhajoby: 11.09.2023 09:00
Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova, O105, místnost č. 105
Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby:31.07.2023
Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 11.09.2023
Oponenti: Mgr. Martin Hronec
 
 
 
Seznam odborné literatury
Easley, D., O'Hara, M., & Basu, S. (2019). From mining to markets: The evolution of bitcoin transaction fees. Journal of Financial Economics, 134(1), 91-109.
Houy, N. (2014). The economics of Bitcoin transaction fees. GATE WP, 1407.
Kayal, P., & Rohilla, P. (2021). Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey. SN Business & Economics, 1(7), 1-21.
Kubal, J. (2021). Exploring the relationship between Bitcoin price and the network's hashrate.
Kukacka, J., & Kristoufek, L. (2022). Fundamental and speculative components of the cryptocurrency pricing dynamics. Available at SSRN.
Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Decentralized Business Review, 21260.
Roughgarden, T. (2020). Transaction fee mechanism design for the Ethereum blockchain: An economic analysis of EIP-1559. arXiv preprint arXiv:2012.00854.
Wood, G. (2014). Ethereum: A secure decentralised generalised transaction ledger. Ethereum project yellow paper, 151(2014), 1-32.

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce
Research question and motivation
Bitcoin, the first successful cryptoasset, was launched in January 2009, when the founder with pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, mined the genesis block. Since then cryptoassets have gained significant popularity.
Transaction fees play a vital role in the Bitcoin and Ethereum network since they serve as an incentive for miners to process and verify transactions. The main research question of this thesis I intend to be how the price of these two recently most successful cryptoassets is affected by the amount of transaction fees in their networks and vice versa. Numerous researchers such as Kubal (2021), who explored impact of hashrate on BTC price, used total transaction fees as a control variable. According to survey lead by Kayal & Rohilla (2021), there has been relatively broad research concerning Bitcoin pricing, although none of these papers tackles question what the effect of the total transaction fees on the Bitcoin price is.

Contribution
Many research questions concerning Bitcoin transaction fees regarded the fundament or the economy of fees (for example Houy (2014) and subsequently Li & Wang (2017)), but I would like to explore relationship of fees and other dynamic metrics especially Bitcoin price, from the perspective of time series analysis. I would like to state following hypotheses:
1. Total transaction fees have an impact on the Bitcoin/Ethereum price.
2. Bitcoin/Ethereum volatility has an impact on total transaction fees.
3. Total number of transactions in Bitcoin network at the given time has an impact on total transaction fees.
4. Bull run of altcoins launched on Ethereum network has an impact on Ethereum gas fees.

Methodology
I intend to use on-chain data from glassnode.com as a core data and R as a computation software. From obtained data I am going to estimate two separate fundamental time series models, for Bitcoin and for Ethereum, where the dependent variable would be price in USD, and independent variables would be total transaction fees, total hashrate, number of new unique addresses, the total supply of each cryptoasset, volatility and the total number of transactions. I intend to divide the thesis into two parts. In the first one I am going to explore relationships between above mentioned variables, especially between price and total transaction fees. And the second one would be aimed at forecasting price.

Outline
Abstract
Introducion
1. Motivation
2. Overview of existing knowledge
3. Contribution
4. Thesis organization
Literature and hypotheses
Introduction of Bitcoin and Ethereum
1. Bitcoin
a. History and fundament
b. Transaction fees mechanism
2. Ethereum
a. History and fundament
b. Gas mechanism
Methodology
1. Data description
2. Description of variables and models
3. Description of tests
Time series analysis
1. Results
2. Interpretation
3. Hypotheses evaluation
Time series forecasting
1. Results
2. Interpretation
3. Hypotheses evaluation
Conclusion


 
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