The impact of vaccinations on the development of Covid-19 pandemic
| Název práce v češtině: | Vliv vakcinace na pandemii Covid-19 |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | The impact of vaccinations on the development of Covid-19 pandemic |
| Klíčová slova: | Covid-19, vakcinace, panelová data, data časových řad |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Covid-19, vaccination, panel data, time series data |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2021/2022 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | Mgr. Roman Kalabiška |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 31.05.2022 |
| Datum zadání: | 31.05.2022 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 21.06.2023 09:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Opletalova, O206, místnost. č. 206 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 26.04.2023 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 21.06.2023 |
| Oponenti: | prof. PhDr. Michal Bauer, Ph.D. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Li, A. Y., T. C. Hannah, J. R. Durbin, N. Dreher, F. M. McAuley, N. F. Marayati, Z. Spiera, M. Ali, A. Gometz, J. Kostman, & T. F. Choudhri (2020): “Multivariate analysis of factors affecting covid-19 case and death rate in u.s. counties: The significant effects of black race and temperature.” medRxiv .
Toharudin, T., R. S. Pontoh, R. E. Caraka, S. Zahroh, P. Kendogo, N. Sijabat, M. D. P. Sari, P. U. Gio, M. Basyuni, & B. Pardamean (2021): “National vaccination and local intervention impacts on covid-19 cases.” Sustainability 13(15). Velasco, J. M., W.-C. Tseng, & C.-L. Chang (2021): “Factors affecting the cases and deaths of COVID-19 victims.” Int J Environ Res Public Health 18(2). M. Şahin (2020): “Impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey.” Sci Total Environ Alagoz O, Sethi AK, Patterson BW, Churpek M, Alhanaee G, Scaria E, et al. (2021): “The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach.” PLoS ONE 16(7): e0254456. |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Motivation:
Covid-19 is a term which was not known three years ago however it is one of the most repeated words and we can hear about it on daily basis now. Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on everybody, and we had to get used to live with it. Consequently, there are ongoing attempts to offset and put an end to its negative repercussions. One possible way how to return to the life we were used to live appears to be a vaccination. The main goal of vaccine is to reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths by increasing individuals’ immunity. Moreover, it could also reduce the number of transmissions. The aim of this thesis is to explore whether vaccines have the expected results. To the best of our knowledge, there are not many papers focusing on similar topics because data related to this issue were not available. There are many variables which have been updated daily since the beginning of the pandemic, nevertheless it takes some time to develop vaccines against this virus. Vaccinations have started in 2021 however it was increasing rapidly since the beginning of the second quarter of 2021. Hypotheses: Hypothesis #1: The vaccine has significant and slowing effect on the development of Covid-19 pandemic Hypothesis #2: There are other significant factors reducing the pandemic as weather, restrictions. Hypothesis #3: There is not a difference between costs per person related to tests and vaccines among countries Methodology: For the purpose of analysis, I will use several sources of data. Firstly, it is necessary to determine that I will be working with the panel data capturing variables for many countries all over the world. The data capturing the information of Covid-19 will be downloaded from Our World in Data website which contains daily updated observations. I will use the observations aggregated into greater units such as weeks to capture trend of development of variables. Aggregation should reduce the distortion of observations caused by weekends testing and vaccination which was always the lowest of the week. Furthermore, dataset will be scaled by the total population to ensure higher cross-country comparability. Additional data will be taken from Weatherbase website which contains average temperature in countries. Since I will be working with panel data containing many countries and lagged dependent variable will be probably also included, then Generalized Method of Moments will be most likely used in this part of thesis. The third hypothesis will be tested using the cost-benefit analysis where I would like to provide the expenditures related to the tests and vaccination and examine if there are differences in costs that will be scaled by the total population. Next section would be devoted to a particular country, for instance the Czech Republic and deeper analysis containing different types of restrictions (levels of lockdowns). This section will be build based on the cross-sectional type of data which needs OLS or other type of econometric regression. It will provide the answer to the second hypothesis. Expected Contribution: The result of the proposed work should provide evidence whether vaccination has the reducing effect on the pandemic and if there are additional factors as weather which might affect further expansion. There are not many studies related to similar topic, and thus the thesis could be used for further analyses explaining for instance situation in particular country and its comparison with the existing results. Furthermore, cost-benefit analysis should provide information about the costs of testing and vaccines that have been used since the beginning of the pandemic which will reveal how much money was spent in order to lessen the pandemic. Moreover, it would be beneficial to compare costs per person used by particular countries and whether there are differences among them. It could be used by governments to optimize costs of tests and vaccines. Last but not least, I will test whether countries with higher expenditures observe greater reduction of number of positively tested people or decrease in deaths caused by Covid-19. The results might be used in future to define how much each percentage of vaccinated people could reduce the numbers of new Covid-19 cases because the vaccines have effectiveness only for a certain period and then you have to go for additional vaccine dose. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Literature review 3. Data description 4. Methodology 5. Analytical part 6. Cost-benefit analysis 7. Case study of particular countries 8. Interpretation of results 9. Conclusion 10. References / Bibliography |