Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime: Evidence from Scandinavia

• Název práce v češtině: Makroekonomické determinanty kriminality: Příklad Skandinávie
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime: Evidence from Scandinavia
• Klíčová slova: kriminalita, panelová regrese, VECM, regionální analýza, Skandinávie
• Klíčová slova anglicky: criminality, panel regression, VECM, regional analysis, Scandinavia
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2020/2021
• Typ práce: bakalářská práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: Mgr. Roman Kalabiška
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 04.09.2021
• Datum zadání: 04.09.2021
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 08.06.2022 09:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O105, Opletalova - místn. č. 105
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 28.04.2022
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 08.06.2022
• Oponenti: doc. Ing. Tomáš Cahlík, CSc.

Seznam odborné literatury

Adamson, G. (2020). Migrants and Crime in Sweden in the Twenty-First Century. Society, 57(1), 9–21.
Altindag, D. T. (2012). Crime and unemployment: Evidence from Europe. International Review of Law and Economics, 32(1), 145–157.
Andresen, M. (2015). Unemployment, GDP, and Crime: The Importance of Multiple Measurements of the Economy. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice/La Revue Canadienne de Criminologie et de Justice Pénale, 57, 35–58.
Anser, M. K. et al. (2020). Dynamic linkages between poverty, inequality, crime, and social expenditures in a panel of 16 countries: Two-step GMM estimates. Journal of Economic Structures, 9(1), 43.
Becker, G. S. (1968). Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach. Journal of Political Economy, 76(2), 169–217.
Chintrakarn, P., & Herzer, D. (2012). More inequality, more crime? A panel cointegration analysis for the United States. Economics Letters, 116(3), 389–391.
Cui, Z., & Hazra, D. (2017). Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime: Evidence from India. Social Science Research Network, Scholarly Paper ID 3005019.
Hipp, J. R., & Kubrin, C. E. (2017). From Bad to Worse: How Changing Inequality in Nearby Areas Impacts Local Crime. RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, 3(2), 129–151.
Hofer, H. V. (2011). Punishment and Crime in Scandinavia, 1750–2008. Crime and Justice, 40(1), 33–107.
Kim, B., Seo, C., & Hong, Y.-O. (2020). A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Income Inequality and Crime in Europe: Do Places Matter? European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research.
Kizilgol, O., & Selim, S. (2017). Socio-economic and demographic determinants of crime by panel count data analysis: The case of EU 28 and Turkey. Pressacademia, 6(1), 31–41.
Martens, P. L. (1997). Immigrants, Crime, and Criminal Justice in Sweden. Crime and Justice, 21, 183–255.
Rosenfeld, R. (2014). Crime and Inflation in Cross-National Perspective. Crime and Justice, 43, 341–366.
Taft, D. R. (1933). Does Immigration Increase Crime? Social Forces, 12(1), 69–77.

Předběžná náplň práce

Research question and motivation

The main aim of this thesis is to determine which macroeconomic variables influence criminality in Scandinavia.

Relationships between macroeconomic variables and criminality have been studied by economists for several decades. Following perhaps the most well-known economic theory of criminal behaviour by Becker (1968), more recent studies concentrated on the impact that macroeconomics determinants including unemployment (Altindag, 2012; Andresen, 2015), inflation (Rosenfeld, 2014), GDP (Andresen, 2015) and income inequality (Kim & Seo & Hong, 2020; Anser et al., 2020) have on criminality.

There are several papers studying these macroeconomic determinants and their connection to criminality. However, most works use either only one country (Cui & Hazra, 2017) or a very large panel of countries (Kizilgol & Selim, 2017) as their sample. This thesis will, on the other hand, study macroeconomic determinants of crime in four Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. This selection is small enough to allow for a more specific and locally oriented analysis, yet large enough to provide an extensive dataset and relevant findings. The thesis will verify whether previous known findings about macroeconomic determinants of crime hold in these countries as well. Considering the relevant literature, the following hypotheses will be tested:
Hypothesis #1: Inflation is positively related to criminality.
Hypothesis #2: Unemployment is positively related to criminality.
Hypothesis #3: GDP per capita is negatively related to criminality.
Hypothesis #4: Immigration is positively related to criminality.
Hypothesis #5: Income inequality is positively related to criminality.

Furthermore, the thesis will thoroughly examine which aspects of the macroeconomic variables studied have the most significant effect on criminality and it will also try to determine the causes of the high crime rate in Sweden and specifically the city of Malmö.


Contribution

While macro- and socio-economic determinants of crime have been studied extensively, there does not exist, to the author’s knowledge, any relevant study on this topic for the Scandinavian region. This thesis will contribute to the existing literature by verifying relevant hypotheses in the given countries and by providing deeper insight into the relationships between macroeconomic variables and criminality in Scandinavia specifically. The findings should help policymakers in (not only) Northern Europe to better understand macroeconomic causes of criminality and to subsequently reduce criminality by implementing corresponding policies.


Methodology

To test the research hypotheses, I will use data on crime statistics provided by individual statistical offices of each country and a selection of sociological, economic, and demographic factors, as well as viable control variables suggested by relevant literature, provided by Eurostat and OECD. Currently there are data available for years between 2000 and 2019. The objective is to obtain a panel dataset covering 4 Nordic countries - Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden - and on a regional level for each country as well. Using panel data techniques, I will evaluate models on country-to-country and regional levels and estimate the effects of a range of factors that are likely to determine the long-term crime statistics as well as their short-term dynamics using an error-correction model. For additional robustness, each model will be estimated with two different procedures and using different variable choice. Lastly, a robustness check will be performed in the form of eliminating outliers out of the sample, both on country and regional levels, in order to evaluate the performance of the chosen model.


Outline

1. Introduction – topic introduction, motivation, contribution
2. Literature Review – summarization of existing literature on (macroeconomic) determinants of crime, hypotheses
3. Data – data sources, dependent and independent variables, data modifications
4. Methodology – panel data regression, robustness checks
5. Empirical Framework – regressions, relationships between variables, further analysis
6. Conclusion – summary of the work, recommendations