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Affordability of own housing across regions of the Czech Republic
Název práce v češtině: Dostupnost vlastního bydlení napříč českými kraji
Název v anglickém jazyce: Affordability of own housing across regions of the Czech Republic
Klíčová slova anglicky: housing affordability, price-to-income, panel data, regional analysis
Akademický rok vypsání: 2019/2020
Typ práce: bakalářská práce
Jazyk práce: angličtina
Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
Vedoucí / školitel: Petr Pleticha, M.Sc.
Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
Datum přihlášení: 30.07.2020
Datum zadání: 30.07.2020
Datum a čas obhajoby: 07.09.2021 09:00
Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O314, Opletalova - místn. č. 314
Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby:27.07.2021
Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 07.09.2021
Oponenti: Mgr. Roman Kalabiška
 
 
 
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Seznam odborné literatury
ČADIL, J. (2009): „Housing Price Bubble Analysis – Case of the Czech Republic.” Prague Economic Papers, No. 1
DUBSKÁ, D. (2009): „Realitní trh České republiky: cenová bublina ano či ne?“ v Souborné informace. Analýzy. Český statistický úřad v Praze
ÉGERT, B. AND D. MIHALJEK (2008): „Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe.” Working Paper No. 1/2008, Czech National Bank
HLAVÁČEK, M., KOMÁREK, L. (2009b): „Housing Prices Bubbles and Their Determinants in the Czech Republic and its Regions”. Czech National Bank WP, no. 12
HLAVÁČEK, M., KOMÁREK, L. (2011): „Regional Analysis of Housing Price Bubbles and Their Determinants in the Czech Republic”. Finance a úvěr - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance
SOMOGYI, T. (2019): “Analýza vývoje cen nemovitostí v ČR.” Dostupné z: https://cbaonline.cz/upload/371-studie-cbepa-2019.pdf
SUNEGA, P., M. MIKESZOVÁ (2015): „Regional disparities in housing affordability in the Czech Republic.”
ZEMČÍK, P. (2009): „Housing Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Is There a Bubble in the Czech Republic?” CERGE-EI WP 390
Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce
Motivation
The housing market is an important segment of the whole financial system as it projects to stability of financial institutions, the behavior of the labour force and the consumption of individual economic agents, especially households. (Hlaváček, Komárek, 2009) Its development in the Czech environment has long been regulated by the equality policy of the former communist regime, which sought to ensure uniform and affordable housing. After the end of the communist regime, socio-economic disparities across regions of the Czech Republic began to enlarge in a reaction to convergence to market equilibrium. (Hampl, 2001) These inequalities have projected also to the real estate market, which has started to develop unevenly across the regions both in supply of real estate and dynamics of the property price growth. The subsequent growing demand for own housing brought about by pos- itive expectations of future development caused prices to rise further and regional gaps to widen. A question then arises what are the main drivers of disparities in affordability of own housing across regions? Such question was partly answered by several Czech researches. Dubská (2009) explored the relationship between property prices and financial market and applied Hodrick-Prescott filter for identification of housing price bubbles. Hlaváček, Komárek (2009) attempted to identify housing price bubbles on a wide range of variables using comprehensive regression analysis of fixed-effect model. An effort to explain inequalities in housing affordability across dif- ferent household types at the regional level was made by Sunega & Mikeszová (2015) who moreover attempted to determine whether inequalities in housing affordability overcome disparities in economic performance. However, as stated by themselves, they all suffered from a lack of data as the time-series were available only on a short span. Furthermore, insufficient availability of the financial market data disabled their proper inclusion making a space for further improvements in housing affordability analysis.

Methodology
For the assessment of housing affordability across regions, three different approaches will be applied. Firstly, within the physical availability approach, indicators of Number of dwellings per 1000 citizens and Number of dwellings per 100 households will be conducted to capture the relationship between the supply side and the demand side of the housing market, where the demand side will be represented by two distinct demographic indicators. Secondly, price-to-income ratio for both flats and family houses with building plots will be calculated to evaluate housing affordability from the perspective of financial affordability approach. Finally, recognizing the complexity of this issue, a regression analysis inspired by Hlaváček, Komárek (2009) will be performed using a first-difference model on public data from the Czech Statistical Office and Ministry of Regional Development. Price-to-income ratio will be set as the explained variable and variables with sufficient variability across regions that are expected to have an impact on housing affordability will be selected as explanatory.

Contribution
This thesis will attempt to conclude analytical approaches to housing affordability, compare their results and discuss their expected reliability. In addition to cited papers, the thesis will attempt to take advantage of longer time series that will enable us to include relevant regionally differentiated data connected to financial sector that did not provide consistent results across mentioned studies especially for the sake of short time-span and developing stage of the debt financing in the Czech republic around the years of their publication. The core of the thesis in the empirical part will be to retrieve and explain factors behind the disparities in housing affordability across regions. Confirmation of the significance of financial market on housing affordability together with providing answers to questions that will be addressed throughout the literature review will belong to secondary objective.

Outline
1. Introduction: outlining the topic and its importance for the stability of the financial system. A brief overview on existing literature with its shortcomings and a summary of own contribution.
2. Literature review: an overview of the main features of the real estate market and a summary of Czech Republic specifics, together with a description of methods of housing affordability evaluation. A closer look at indicators for assessing physical availability and financial affordability, their construction and subsequent comparison at the regional level.
3. Data: a selection of appropriate variables with reference to relevant literature and discussion over constructed preliminary statistics.
4. Methodology: description of applied model and discussion on its suitability for task of our interest. Description of procedures used to ensure reliability of the results.
5. Results: interpretation of the results and their comparison to existing literature.
6. Conclusion: summary of the results and proposal of possible future improvements.

 
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