Measuring Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using General Equilibrium Models
| Název práce v češtině: | CGE odhady dopadů obchodní války mezi USA a Čínou na blahobyt |
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| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Measuring Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using General Equilibrium Models |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Welfare effect, Trade war, CGE model, General Equilibrium Model, Advanced gravity model |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2018/2019 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 28.05.2019 |
| Datum zadání: | 28.05.2019 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 15.09.2021 09:00 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O105, Opletalova - místn. č. 105 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 27.07.2021 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 15.09.2021 |
| Oponenti: | PhDr. Pavel Vacek, Ph.D. |
| Kontrola URKUND: | |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| Caliendo, L. and Parro, F. (2015), ‘Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA’, The Review of Economic Studies 82(1): 1-44.
Costinot, A. and Rodriguez-Claire, A. (2014), ‘Trade Theory With Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization’, in Gopinath, G., Helpman, E., and Rogoff, K. (eds) , Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 4, Oxford: Elsevier Ltd. Gilbert, J. P. (2004). GTAP Model Analysis: Simulating the Effect of a Korea-US FTA Using Computable General Equilibrium Techniques. Free Trade Between Korea and the United States, 89-118. Oberhofer, H., & Pfaffermayr, M. (2018). Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model. Wing, I. S. (2004). Computable general equilibrium models and their use in economy-wide policy analysis. Joint Program on the Science and Policy of the Global Change, Technical paper, 6. Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., Monteiro, J. A., & Larch, M. (2016). An advanced guide to trade policy analysis: The structural gravity model. Geneva, Switzerland: World Trade Organization |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Motivation
In 2008, US imposed a 25 percent tariff on 284 imported Chinese products (worth US$16 billion) and China promptly responded with a 25 percent retaliatory tariffs on 545 US goods (worth US$34 billion), accusing the US of triggering “the largest trade war in economic history to date”. Despite continued trade negotiations, the disputes between the world’s largest economies are escalating and international trade has been under inevitable pressure. The heavy tariffs imposed by the trade war harms consumers by making foreign purchasing expensive. But at the same time domestic industries are protected from foreign competitors and the government gains tariff revenues. The ongoing trade war will affect the overall macroeconomic performance of both the US and Chinese economies. Using advanced gravity and computable general equilibrium models, I will estimate welfare effects in both economies. Hypotheses 1. The trade war will lower the consumer welfare of both the US and China. 2. The trade war will have a significant negative impact on China's manufacturing sector and the US service sector. Methodology Advanced gravity and computable general equilibrium models will be used. Dataset will be obtained from the WITS(World Integrated Trade Solution) and OECD TiVA(Trade inValue Added). I will construct general equilibrium models, building upon the structural gravity model in Yotov(2016) and the computable general equilibrium model in Wing(2004), focusing on the trade between the US and China. The computable general equilibrium model will make use of the widely used programming language Generalized Algebraic Modeling System(GAMS). |