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Home advantage in football during COVID-19 pandemic
Název práce v češtině: Výhoda domácího týmu během pandemie COVID-19
Název v anglickém jazyce: Home advantage in football during COVID-19 pandemic
Akademický rok vypsání: 2017/2018
Typ práce: bakalářská práce
Jazyk práce: angličtina
Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
Vedoucí / školitel: Mgr. Petr Polák, M.Sc., Ph.D.
Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
Datum přihlášení: 14.06.2018
Datum zadání: 14.06.2018
Datum a čas obhajoby: 24.01.2022 09:00
Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby:05.01.2022
Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 24.01.2022
Oponenti: Mgr. Barbara Pertold-Gebicka, M.A., Ph.D.
 
 
 
Kontrola URKUND:
Seznam odborné literatury
Fischer, K. & J.Haucap (2020): “Betting market efficiency in the presence of unfamiliar shocks: The case of ghost games during the COVID-19 pandemic.” Technical Report 349, Düsseldorf.
Peeters, T. & J. C.van Ours (2021): “Seasonal Home Advantage in English Professional Football; 1974-2018.” De Economist169(1): pp. 107–126
Pollard, R. (2006): “Home advantage in soccer: Variations in its magnitude and a literature review of the interrelated factors associated with its existence.” Journal of Sport Behavior29: pp. 169–189.
Schwartz, B. & S.Barsky (1977): “The Home Advantage.” Social Forces 55: pp. 641–661.
Winkelmann, David & Deutscher, Christian Ötting, Marius. (2020). “Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break.” Applied Economics: pp. 53.
Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce
Motivation

Every football team should benefit from the supporting crowd at home stadium. Among the other factors contributing to home team performance, audience is considered as one of the most important. After the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic European leagues had been stopped. In several months they were resumed again, however, behind closed doors. In contrast to only few matches played without fans in the past years, mainly due to home team penalization, this rare situation provides almost one consecutive year without fans to investigate.

The first research question of the thesis would be: Did the home advantage change during games played during COVID-19 pandemic?
This unprecedented situation might also affect the betting market. With a possibility of home advantage drop, bookmakers could worse estimate the probability of home team win. The second question then is: Did bookmakers adequately adjust the betting odds regarding to possible change in home advantage?


Methodology

Historical data of match results will provide a review of home advantage in past 60 years.
Detailed match statistics data and corresponding betting odds from the last 5 seasons will be extracted from football-data.co.uk, other team-specific data related to team strength or relative importance of each match will be extracted from fivethirtyeight.com data storage. Another necessary statistics will be calculated.
The change in home advantage will be analysed using regression model, further the betting odds data will be used to run a regression model as well.


Expected Contribution

What helps to increase home advantage is trying to be answered for a long time. The main task was mostly separating of all factors from each other while studying the impact of only one of them. Unique conditions set up by COVID-19 pandemic bring an opportunity to isolate at least the crowd factor, with the other factors staying almost unchanged.
After more than a year since the COVID-19 outbreak, a few researchers tried to answer similar question using data from the interrupted season. This thesis should analyse the whole season 2020-2021 played without fans or only with very limited amount, which allows to use balanced schedule for all teams. Top 4 European leagues (England, Germany, Italy and Spain) will be analysed as these leagues have the highest average attendance.
In case of overestimating the betting odds on home team win during matches played without fans, there could emerge profitable betting strategies.


Outline

1. Introduction
2. History of home advantage
3. Data description
4. Methodology and model
5. Results discussion
6. Conclusion


Core bibliography

1. Fischer, K. & J. Haucap (2020): Betting market efficiency in the presence ofunfamiliar shocks: The case of ghost games during the COVID-19 pandemic. Technical Report 349, Düsseldorf.
2. Peeters, T. & J. C. van Ours (2021): Seasonal Home Advantage in English Professional Football; 1974-2018. De Economist169(1): pp. 107—126
3. Pollard, R. (2006): Home advantage in soccer: Variations in its magnitude and a literature review of the interrelated factors associated with its existence. Journal of Sport Behavior 29: pp. 169—189.
4. Schwartz, B. & S.Barsky (1977): The Home Advantage. Social Forces 55: pp. 641—661.
5. Winkelmann, David & Deutscher, Christian & Ötting, Marius. (2020). Bookmakers' mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break. Applied Economics: pp. 53.
 
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