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Costs of Conflict: Empirical Analysis of the Economic Situation in Palestine and Israel
Název práce v češtině: Náklady konfliktu - empirická analýza ekonomické situace v Palestině a Izraeli
Název v anglickém jazyce: Costs of Conflict: Empirical Analysis of the Economic Situation in Palestine and Israel
Akademický rok vypsání: 2016/2017
Typ práce: diplomová práce
Jazyk práce: angličtina
Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
Vedoucí / školitel: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D.
Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
Datum přihlášení: 09.02.2017
Datum zadání: 09.02.2017
Datum a čas obhajoby: 19.06.2019 09:00
Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O105, Opletalova - místn. č. 105
Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby:10.05.2019
Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 19.06.2019
Oponenti: Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D.
 
 
 
Kontrola URKUND:
Zásady pro vypracování
Hypotheses:
1. There is an asymmetry in distribution of the effect from the occupation for Israel and Palestine
2. Israeli West Bank barrier construction and Hamas election resulted in worse economic situation for both Israel and Palestine
3. Deviation in the pattern of the economic development is explained not only by the occupation, but also by the difference in diplomatic relations, government structure, technology and culture

Methodology:
Israel and Palestine are two economies on the same land with huge territorial disputes, they own similar natural resources, therefore, there is a necessity to put an emphasis on history, government structure, political regimes, institutions, productive efficiency, diplomatic relations and development of Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We are going to apply a synthetic control methodology that was used by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie et al. (2010) for comparative cases and analysis of effect from certain events on economy (the methodincludes a construction of synthetic economy, the analysis is based on such indicators as GDP, trade openness, inflation rate, industry share, schooling, investment rate, international aid). This method allows to see the effect from the major recent events that are often blamed for decline in Palestinian economy and prosperity of Israel, i.e. Israeli West Bank barrier (2005) and Hamas election in Gaza in 2006.
Main data sources are the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics and the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statics provides data from 1994 till 2016, earlier data is partially available in studies published by various international organizations (such as the United Nations), researchers of that period and the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics.

Expected Contribution:
There is a limited number of empirical studies on the topic of Palestinian economy, but high amount of speculations around it, thus, it is interesting to analyze how Palestine operates under the occupation and what are the economic effects from the occupation for both parties. This paper will provide an inside into structure and development of Palestinian and Israeli economies. The paper is an attempt to show the difference in the impact from the occupation through analysis of consequences after the main recent events using synthetic matching method.
Seznam odborné literatury
Abadie, Alberto and Diamond, Alexis and Hainmueller, Jens (2014): Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method. American Journal of Political Science. February 1, 2014.
Arab World for Research and Development (October 25th, 2008). Results of an Opinion Poll. National Dialogue, Government Performance, Tunnels in Gaza, Palestinian Elections, American
Arie Arnon, Israel Luski, Avia Spivak , Jimmy Weinblatt (1999): The Palestinian Economy: Between Imposed Integration and Voluntary Separation. Middle East Report, No. 210, Reform or Reaction? Dilemmas of Economic Development in the Middle East, Spring, 1999.
Botta, Alberto (2010): The Palestinian economy and its trade pattern: Stylised facts and alternative modelling strategies. Published in: The Palestinian economy: Theoretical and practical challenges (October 2010): pp. 194-231.
Charles I. Jones (2016): The Facts of Economic Growth. Handbook of Macroeconomics, Volume 2, 2016, Pages 3–69.
Daron Acemoglu, Melissa Dell (2009): Productivity Differences Between and Within Countries. NBER Working Paper No. 15155. July 2009.
Dessus, Sébastien (2004): A Palestinian Growth History, 1968-2000. Journal of Economic Integration 19, no. 3 (2004): 447-69. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23000694
Jim Zanotti (2016), U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians, Congressional Research Service.
Ka Man Ho, Ivo Dinov (2013): An Empirical Study on Economic Prosperity and Peace. UCLA Undergraduate Science Journal, vol. 26, Spring 2013.
Matthew Duss and Michael A. Cohen (2015), The United States should recognize the state of Palestine, washingtonpost.com
Parul Verma (2015), Why Israel Desperately Needs Palestine : Economic-Political-Psychological Analysis, Intifada-Palestine.com
UNCTAD (2008) Report on UNCTAD assistance to the Palestinian people: Developments in the economy of the occupied Palestinian territory. TD/B/55/2. 15 July.
UNCTAD (2009a) Report on UNCTAD assistance to the Palestinian people: Developments in the economy of the occupied Palestinian territory. TD/B/56/3. Geneva. 7 August.
UNCTAD (2009b) Policy Alternatives for Sustained Palestinian, Development and State Formation, UNCTAD/GDS/APP/2008/1. New York and Geneva.
UNCTAD (2012) The Palestinian economy: Macroeconomic and trade policymaking under occupation, UNCTAD/GDS/APP/2011/1. New York and Geneva.
Předběžná náplň práce
One land, one conflict, two different economies. The world’s most controversial topic is found in the Middle East at the place where three main religions come together, however, for more than 50 years people are not able to reach a peace deal.
Currently, 136 of the 193 member states of the United Nations recognize Palestine as an independent state, while Israel is recognized by the 161 UN members. The reason for the recognition issue is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that arose from an inconsistency in the identification of the Palestinian territory. The State of Palestine claims the West Bank and Gaza Strip, including East Jerusalem, which has been occupied by Israel since 1967.
Israeli-Palestinian conflict arises an enormous amount of questions in human’s minds all over the world. Palestine is a unique and interesting case of the economy that functions under Israeli occupation. The conflict is causing economic and diplomatic problems for both parties involved.
There is a high amount of speculations and discussions about an economic impact of the conflict for Palestine and Israel, however, a number of sufficient empirical analysis is quite low. It is obvious that the occupation does not affect equally the parties involved, but to which extend current economic problems are triggered by the conflict?
Since the conflict, itself started over 50 years ago and there are no economic data for Palestine before 1947 we cannot precisely estimate an impact of the conflict. However, we should be able to see the effect of the recent events that are mainly blamed for all economic problems and that caused considerable changes in the structure of both economies, on the one side Israeli bad relations with the Middle East countries, BDS movement that started in 2005 (The Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions) and accusations that Israel benefits from the West Bank barrier and the occupation, on the other side Palestine under Israeli oppression and the split of the Palestinian Authority after a civil war in 2006. We are going to apply a synthetic control method in order to analyze the economic consequences of the Israeli West Bank barrier (2005) construction for both parties.
This thesis is an attempt to give an empirical and analytical analysis of the economic situation in Israel and Palestine, highlighting the differences in their economic performance and the impact from the occupation.
Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce
1. Introduction
2. Background
a. Previous studies on this topic
b. Meaning of the Palestinian land
3. Israeli-Palestinian conflict
a. Origin and the reasons for the conflict
b. Development of the conflict and attitude toward the conflict of other countries and international organizations
c. The West Bank Barrier and costs of conflict
4. Methodology and Data
5. Estimation and results
6. Conclusions
 
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