The Effect of Local Policy on Local Parliamentary-Election Results

• Název práce v češtině: Jak místní politika ovlivňuje obecní výsledky voleb do parlamentu
• Název v anglickém jazyce: The Effect of Local Policy on Local Parliamentary-Election Results
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2015/2016
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: PhDr. Lenka Šťastná, Ph.D.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 15.06.2016
• Datum zadání: 16.06.2016
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 31.01.2018 08:30
• Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O206, Opletalova - místn. č. 206
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 05.01.2018
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 31.01.2018
• Oponenti: PhDr. Jaromír Baxa, Ph.D.

Seznam odborné literatury

AKARCA, Ali T. a Aysit TANSEL. Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004. Public Choice [online]. 2006, 129(01), 29 [cit. 2016-07-13]. Available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-005-9013-9

ANSELIN, Luc. Spatial econometrics: methods and models [online]. 2. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic, 2010 [cit. 2016-07-16]. ISBN 978-904-8183-111. Dostupné z: https://books.google.co.nz/books?hl=cs&lr=&id=G47tCAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PR14&dq=Anselin,+L.,+1988a,+Spatial+econometrics:+Methods+and+models+(Kluwer,+Dordrecht)&ots=awjXdUN_kl&sig=UpP3Y7EclwuxZxGLW9M5WFFco_c&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Anselin%2C%20L.%2C%201988a%2C%20Spatial%20econometrics%3A%20Methods%20and%20models%20(Kluwer%2C%20Dordrecht)&f=false

CUTLER, Fred. Local Economies, Local Policy Impacts and Federal Electoral Behaviour in Canada. Canadian Journal of Political Science [online]. 2002, 35(02), 36 [cit. 2016-07-03]. Available at: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=1&fid=275393&jid=CJP&volumeId=35&issueId=02&aid=275392&bodyId=&membershipNumber=&societyETOCSession=

KNEEBONE, Ronald D. a Kenneth MCKENZIE. Electoral and Partisan Cycles in Fiscal Policy: An Examination of Canadian Provinces. International Tax and Public Finance [online]. 2001, 8(5), 22 [cit. 2016-07-16]. Available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1012895211073

KOSTELECKÝ, Tomáš a Daniel ČERMÁK. Vliv teritoriálně specifických faktorů na formování politických orientací voličů. Sociologický Časopis [online]. 2004, 40(04), 19 [cit. 2016-07-14]. Dostupné z: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41132049?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

ŠŤASTNÁ, Lenka. Electoral Cycles in Public Expenditures: Evidence from Czech Local
Governments. IES Working Paper 28/2015. IES FSV. Charles University.[cit. 2016-07-16]. Available at: www.ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/29511

VITON, Philip A. Notes on Spatial Econometric Models [online]. 2010, 23 [cit. 2016-07-17]. Available at: http://facweb.knowlton.ohio-state.edu/pviton/courses2/crp8703/spatial.pdf

Předběžná náplň práce

Motivation: Voting system in the Czech Republic has one curiosity – the local election for municipal council and for Chamber of Deputies took place in the same year until 2013; local during the spring and parliamentary during the autumn. Besides this, as municipal council is responsible for public services, local environment, etc. this curiosity brings a question whether there could be some relationship between local policy and local parliamentary-election results. Although there is a significant difference between political program on national level and local policy, people could feel more comfortable in the town where the municipal council performs well. They trust the leading political party which could result in voting for this party even during the parliamentary-election. But if the municipal council performs poorly, voters could punish this political party for bad local policy or bad local economy despite their attractive political program on national level. According to a few previous papers (i.e. Šťastná 2015, Kneebone & McKenzie 2001), there is also visible increase in local spending during the election years. In this thesis I would like to focus on these themes, explore whether there are some relationships between local policy and local parliamentary-election results and find out whether the political parties could improve their performance on national level by supporting for instance local spending.

Hypotheses: I would like to test whether there is some connection between local parliamentary-election results and government-induced changes which influence the local economy. More specifically if the government increases or decreases the municipal budget through subsidies, the voters can either reward or punish them for the effect on the local economy during the parliamentary-election as subsidies account for a substantial part of the municipal budget. My first and second hypotheses are as follows:
1. Hypothesis #1: There are significantly higher subsidies received from government during the election years.
2. Hypothesis #2: The probability of voting for current leading party in parliamentary elections increases with higher subsidies.
As a follow-up to the previous two hypotheses local spending is likely to increase before elections to attract more voters, mainly expenditures on culture and infrastructure are targeted before election (Šťastná, 2015). Kneebone & McKenzie (2001) also confirmed the presence of opportunistic responses in spending in their paper. According to their research, the expenditures in highly visible areas such as schools or roads tend to increase during the election years. My third hypothesis works on this presumption:
3. Hypothesis #3: The probability of voting for current leading party in parliamentary elections increases with local spending before elections; specific groups of spending will be tested.

Methodology: For testing the hypotheses which are stated above I will take only the municipalities of extended scope (sometimes also called 3rd degree towns). Currently there are 205 municipalities of extended scope in the Czech Republic. I will use the data provided by Czech Statistical Office through www.volby.cz to get the local parliamentary-election results and local municipal council election results since 1993. The specific years are 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010. Local election also took place in 2014 while parliamentary elections extraordinary took place in 2013. I would like to include other aspects to my research like local unemployment or inflation and these data are also provided by Czech Statistical Office. In addition I would like to include also the party to which mayor belongs, the party to which regional council president belongs, spending on culture or sport, etc. I will use the data provided by Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic to get the cities budgets and spending.
According to Kostelecký & Čermák (2004) there exists a significant spatial differentiation among voters’ political orientation. Voting support for local leading parties may be spatially correlated if there are regions where municipality leaders are affiliated with the same party. In such a case, spatial correlation of voting support in parliamentary election may give rise to spatially correlated errors, because spatial correlation of voting support itself cannot be explained by environmental variables included in the regression. Although OLS remains unbiased, it is no longer efficient and it leads to biasedness of classical estimators for standard errors (Anselin, 2010). My methodology is based on Anselin (2010) - I will test spatial correlation in errors using Moran’s I test. If the spatial error correlation is detected, I will use the Spatial Error Model (SEM). This model could be describe by following equations:
y=Xβ+u
u=ρWu+υ
where υ is assumed to be normal. Solving the error specification for u, we obtain the following equation:
y=Xβ+〖(I-ρW)〗^(-1) υ
(Viton, 2010).

Expected contribution: No recent paper studied the relationship between local policy and local parliamentary-election results so I would like to fill up the gap in the literature. My results will contribute to better understanding of these issues and could be used by political parties to find out how to improve their election results – i.e. through supporting the local economy.

Outline: The expected structure of my thesis is as follows:
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Institutional setting – description of municipalities and their responsibilities, voting system, etc.
2.2. Description of main political parties in the Czech Republic
2.3. Research focus on local policy – case studies from Canada, USA, Britain, etc.
3. Empirical Part
3.1. Explanation on data collection
3.2. Employed methodology
3.3. Hypotheses testing
4. Results
5. Conclusion

Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce

Does local policy, especially local public spending affect local support for national political parties in parliamentary election? Can national political parties improve their support through subsidies to municipalities?