The impact of China's demographic policy on its current GDP growth

• Název práce v češtině: The impact of China's demographic policy on its current GDP growth
• Název v anglickém jazyce: The impact of China's demographic policy on its current GDP growth
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2014/2015
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Institut ekonomických studií (23-IES)
• Vedoucí / školitel: Mgr. Michal Paulus
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 17.06.2015
• Datum zadání: 17.06.2015
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 13.09.2017 09:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Opletalova - Opletalova 26, O109, Opletalova - místn. č. 109
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 30.07.2017
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 13.09.2017
• Oponenti: Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D.

Zásady pro vypracování

Motivation:
The rapid economic development of China in the last decades is a result of a multitude of different economic,
political, social, and cultural factors, the unique place among which have demographic processes. According to
official data only, the current population of China is over 1 billion 360 million people. For a long period population
growth had been viewed by the Chinese authorities as a positive trend, a source of production growth.
Nevertheless, by the middle of XX century it became evident that the speed of population growth exceeded the
speed of economic development; the country faced the problem of lack of the resources.
Since the year of 1973, family planning is included into China’s 5-year plan. Moreover, it is written in the
Constitution, that the government encourages planned childbearing. All these are the signs of a special attention,
which Chinese authorities pay to demographic issue that proves its importance for the economy. The current
demographic policy of China is known under the name of “One-child policy”, and it includes measures for
encouragement of families with one child and punishment of the families with two and more children. Even
though the policy led to some positive results, it also had a number of negative consequences, such as: sexbased
birth rate disparity, aging of population, and reduction of population in working age. These consequences
had a significant impact on socio-economic situation in the country.
The aim of this paper is the discussion and analysis of the impact of China’s demographic policy and its recent
results on country’s economic growth.

Hypotheses:
1. Hypothesis #1: The relation between the birth rate and GRP of Chinese provinces is negative.
2. Hypothesis #2: The relation between foreign direct investment into the region and GRP is positive.
3. Hypothesis #3: The impact of high percentage of ethnic minorities in population on GRP is negative.

Methodology:
The thesis will represent a study on relations between population growth and GDP growth in China. The analysis
will be based on data, annually provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Following Qilei Fang and Chee Kian Leong, I will use the Solow Growth Model as a basis for macroeconomic
analysis, as this model represents the effect of population growth on real income.
Based on the available data, I will perform panel data analysis on provincial level using fixed effects model.
Taking GRP as the dependent variable, I have chosen the following independent variables: gross capital formation, foreign direct investment, birth rate, percentage of ethnic minorities.

Expected Contribution:
I will make a research of the influence of “One-Child-Policy” in China on current economic situation in the country.
Based on existing papers, I will modify previously created models with new significant variables to obtain better
results. Taking into account the information for several past decades, I will focus on currently available data and
also try to make a short-term forecast for the GDP.

Seznam odborné literatury

1. 都阳, 人口转变、劳动力市场����折与经济发展, Du Yang, Demographic Changes, Labor Market
Transition and Economic Development in China, ‘International Economic Review’, June 2010.
2. Jane Golley, Rod Tyers, Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and
India, Discussion Paper 12.03, The University of Western Australia, 2012.
3. Judith Banister, David E. Bloom, and Larry Rosenberg, Population Aging and Economic Growth in
China, PGDA Working Paper No. 53, March 2010
available at: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/working.htm
4. National Bureau of Statistics of China, www.stats.gov.cn
5. Noemi Schramm, Population-Control-Policies and their Implications for Economic Growth in China,
Bachelor’s thesis: 17 August 2011.
6. Qilei Fang, Chee Kian Leong, Impact of Population Growth and One Child Policy on Economic Growth
of China, School of Economics, The University of Nottingham Ningbo China, 2014.
available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2464426
7. Р.Ф. Назарова, В.Д. Серова, Демографическая политика КНР: история и современность, R.F.
Nazarova, V.D. Serova, Demographic Policy of The People's Republic of China: History and Modern
Times, Amur State University, 2010.
available at: http://www.amursu.ru/attachments/article/9533/N50_7.pd
8. Xiumei Guo and Dora Marinova, Economic Development, Population Ageing and Sustainability in
China, Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, 2011.
9. Zhihao Yu, Demographic Dynamics and Economic Take-Off – the Economic Impact of China’s
Population-Control Policies, Carleton University, November 2008.

Předběžná náplň práce

Outline:
1. Motivation: the specific role of demographic processes in economic development of China.
2. Studies on relation between demographic policy and economic growth of China: a brief overview of existing literature and my further research on the topic.
3. Data: description of the data and the way it will be collected.
4. Methods: I will explain the theoretical background and empirical approach.
5. Results: description of regressions, robustness check.
6. Conclusion: I will give a summary of my results and suggest their future implications.